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Dollar hits farmer confidence

08 Dec, 2009 10:29 AM
FARMER confidence has fallen as the stronger Australian dollar erodes returns, the latest quarterly Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey has shown.

More farmers now expect conditions to deteriorate in the next 12 months compared with those expecting conditions to improve, and Rabobank general manager, rural Australia, Peter Knoblanche said the strong rises in sentiment earlier in the year could not be sustained.

The latest survey found 23 per cent of farmers expected conditions to improve in the coming year, down from 28 per cent last quarter.

The number of farmers expecting conditions to worsen increased to 37pc, up from 25pc last quarter.

Mr Knoblanche said despite an improved winter cropping season in most areas, sentiment was weaker in all states except Victoria.

Farm incomes were expected to be adversely affected by the stronger Australian dollar over the coming months.

“Every one cent rise in the Australian dollar against the US dollar strips more than $150 million off the gross value of agricultural production,” he said.

However, there had been generally favourable rain, resulting in a good finish to the winter cropping season in most areas, Mr Knoblanche said.

“While there have been some disruptions to harvesting in some areas, the winter grain crop will be an improvement on the past few years,” he said.

"It is disappointing that farmers won’t be able to take full advantage of this due to the lower farm gate returns for most commodities.”

Of those primary producers surveyed who expected conditions to worsen in the next 12 months, 65pc cited the rising Australian dollar as a major factor.

“Many of the winter cropping areas across the nation will achieve their best production for a few years with the national crop expected to be at its highest level since 2005,” Mr Knoblanche said.

Since the survey was taken, commodity prices have rallied somewhat, driven by improved market sentiment and a broad recovery in risk appetite.

For wheat, gains in international prices and slight downgrades to Australian crop estimates helped support local values, to about $20 a tonne in November.

Market expectations are for the Australian dollar to remain elevated in coming months, supported by ongoing weakness in the US dollar, a widening interest rate differential between Australia and the US, strong commodity demand from China, and a domestic economy shifting back toward trend growth.

Concerns about seasonal conditions were cited by 33pc of survey respondents as a major reason for conditions worsening (compared with 18 per cent with that concern last survey).

Mr Knoblanche said while winter grain crops may have improved this year, some areas missed out on winter rainfall and were unable to grow crops.

Harvesting had also been adversely affected in some areas by frosts and heavy rainfall.

Concerns over the direction of input prices have moderated this quarter with 14pc citing rising input costs as a reason for the worsening outlook, compared with 26pc in the last survey period.

Mr Knoblanche said the moderation in prices for fertiliser and chemicals had contributed to the reduced concern over input prices.

“Livestock producers will also benefit from the reduction in feed grain prices,” he said.

In terms of farmers’ own businesses, the Rabobank survey found 31 per cent of respondents expected to see improved performance in their business over the next 12 months, compared to 35pc last quarter.

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MULTIMEDIA
07 December, 2009
POLL
Q: Which do you think is the best method for reducing Australia's carbon emissions?

Emissions Trading Scheme
(8.7%)

Carbon Tax
(11.7%)

Laws regulating behaviour
(7.7%)

Direct Govt investment in renewable energy
(42.9%)

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(5.2%)

None of the above
(23.8%)

Total Votes: 762
Poll Date: 06 December, 2009

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