Limited availability of farm input stocks could see a spike in agrochemical and fertiliser prices as seasonal demand picks up in 2010, according to a Rabobank report.
The Rabobank report, Farm Inputs: Getting back to Reality, states many manufacturers and distributors are running low on inventory, meaning any sharp increase in demand could result in a logistical bottleneck causing higher short-term prices for farmers.
However, report author, Rabobank analyst Adam Tomlinson, says that while an increase in agricultural commodity prices may lead to rising demand for farm inputs and drive up prices, he does not expect them to reach anywhere near the highs of mid-2008.
"Along with a fall in agricultural commodity prices since mid-2008, annual fertiliser application by tonnage dropped by 6.7 per cent to mid-2009 and annual global agrochemical sales fell by 6.4pc (in nominal US dollar terms) in 2009 compared to 2008," he says.
"Lower demand levels have meant that global prices for manufactured farm inputs remained subdued throughout 2009.
"The collapse of international farm input prices in late 2008 resulted in many manufacturers and distributors of farm inputs being caught with large stocks of highly-priced inventory and production capacities in excess of existing demand.
"In response to this, manufacturers of farm inputs wound back production and the supply chain ran down inventories which could potentially have a marked impact on prices if we see a seasonal spike in farm input demand."
While unlikely to reach the highs of 2008, farm input prices will continue to be impacted by the volatility of crop prices, the report says.
Farm input prices have stabilised at similar levels to 2006/07 and Rabobank expects most farm inputs will remain above the pre-2006 average levels in the short-to-medium-term.
Mr Tomlinson says other factors that will place upward pressure on farm input prices will be the higher average cost levels for energy and raw materials, and the increasing costs for managing environment issues such as carbon pollution.