Robert Thompson, a professor at the University of Illinois and a member of the US government's trade advisory panel, was one of three round watchers to warn the Outlook conference here that the Doha Round was unlikely to conclude this year, as envisaged.

Professor Thompson blamed ''the drumbeat of anti-globalisation, anti-trade rhetoric'' from unions, environmentalists, and now farm groups, for ending Washington's support for free trade.

Congress has rejected free trade agreements negotiated with South Korea, Panama and Colombia, denied the president authority to make new deals, and refused to obey World Trade Organisation orders to end cotton subsidies found illegal under world trade rules.

''There's no way trade negotiations will move forward in 2010,'' Professor Thompson said. ''2011 would be the earliest, but that's questionable - 2012 is out of the question, but in 2013 the window might open up.''

A key insider told the conference, hosted by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, that the negotiations were headed for failure without a new injection of political will.

The G20 leaders officially did so at their Pittsburgh summit late last year, making a great show of directing their negotiators to conclude the round in 2010.

New Zealand's chief trade negotiator, Crawford Falconer, who has just stepped down after four years as chairman of the round's agriculture negotiations, told the conference there had been no sign of this in Geneva.

Ministers were due to meet this month to conclude a broad deal on tariff cuts in agriculture and manufacturing, so the rest of the round could follow. But with no sign of any side giving ground, the ministers are staying home.

''We're in trouble - let's not kid ourselves about that,'' Mr Falconer said. ''Since July 2008, there has not been a material advance. There's a very real risk that the politics will keep us stalled.''