Next Tuesday's election will spell profound changes for United States' agriculture, particularly if, as now seems probable from electoral projections, Democrat Senator Barack Obama is the victor.
His populist agriculture platform, one almost sure to find approval with projected gains for the Democratic majority in Congress, will steer US farm policy on a course favoring small and mid-sized production, perhaps at the expense of large-scale operations.
Even if Republican Senator John McCain pulls out a last-minute win, he faces the same formidable Congress, with net gains predicted for the Democratic majority.
McCain, whose disdain for farm and ethanol subsidies is well known, would likely get little traction for major policy changes.
To make the changes he seeks, he would have to rely on silver-tongued salesmanship or the power of the veto pen.
Neither Obama nor McCain have roots in agriculture. With little personal connection, both depend on input from key advisers on agriculture.
While Obama's campaign did not provide the requested names of its agricultural advisers, they clearly have been doing their homework.
His campaign's 13-page document, 'Rural Leadership for Rural America', pledges everything from tougher regulations for concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) - while capping the Environmental Quality Incentive Program - to cleaning up methamphetamine labs.
Obama is "a strong supporter of Senator Tom Harkin's legislation that protects independent producers by banning the ownership of livestock by meat packers, and he will fight for passage", his campaign report pledges.
He also supports ensuring that "farm programs are strong and are targeted to support family farmers".
An Obama Administration would cap farm payments at $250,000, apparently through regulations since Congress has failed on that issues on several tries.
"Every President since Ronald Regan has had the authority to close this loophole without additional action by Congress but has failed to act," according to Obama's campaign statement.
Interestingly, former South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle, who was the Senate majority leader during the 2002 Farm Bill and led the "prairie populist" Senate Democrats, is a top strategist for Obama's campaign. Senator Kent Conrad, another prairie populist, was an early Obama supporter as well.
The Obama camp also has close ties to the National Farmers Union, led by president Tom Buis, who was a top Daschle aide for many years and is now one of the most influential agricultural lobbyists in Washington, D.C.
His name is often mentioned for the short list from which Obama might pick the next agriculture secretary.
The McCain camp has political veterans as well, including former Reagan-era Agriculture Secretary John Block and Missouri Farm Bureau president Charles Kruse.
They have the tough job of explaining McCain's politically hazardous stances in opposition to farm program subsidies and government supports for ethanol.
One of McCain's top advisers, former US Department of Agriculture deputy secretary Jim Moseley, who serves as co-chair of McCain's agricultural advisory committee, has a gift for making those edgy positions more palatable.
"McCain is very, very free market; he detests subsidies and mandates," Moseley explained.
Acknowledging how that strains McCain's political support in the face of US farm policy's long reliance on subsidies, Moseley also pointed out that McCain's willingness to take the risk "tells you a lot about the man and his principles".
McCain's farm policy would move in the direction of a program that protects farm income based on costs and yields at the farm level not just for the current program crops but for all producers.
That would include livestock producers and specialty and commodity crop producers, he explained.
Senator Richard Lugar raised a similar proposal during the last farm bill debate, but it fell well short of the votes needed.
Nonetheless, the marker was down.
Moseley said last week he fears for the future of animal agriculture in the US should Obama be elected.
Moseley pointed out that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid could then advance extreme environmental agendas with no fear of a White House veto.
Moseley, an Indiana corn, soybean and hog farmer, served in a number of posts with USDA and the Environmental Protection Agency during his career in public service.
He currently chairs the EPA agricultural advisory committee and is well known for promoting land and water stewardship on a farm level.
Moseley said he worries that Obama's unchecked environmental regulations could put the brakes on US investment in CAFOs.
Those investors might wait out the first Obama term, but not a second, before they move offshore, Moseley told Feedstuffs.
"No one would invest," he said. "Corn and soybean farmers who say they don't want CAFOs next door would soon be looking for somewhere else to sell their grain."
McCain's stand against ethanol subsidies plays into the split that already exists in between the nation's corn growers and the livestock industry in their competition for corn supplies.
McCain doesn't believe ethanol subsidies are needed but instead believes in "driving market demand," Moseley said, allowing that its not a politically popular choice among corn producers.
McCain would support the ethanol industry by accelerating the production of flex-fuel vehicles, which can run on up to 85pc ethanol instead of today's 10pc, and he foresees a time when as much as 20 billion gallons could come from corn-based ethanol, with another 50 billion to 60 billion gallons coming from cellulosic ethanol, Moseley said.
In addition, McCain would ask car manufacturers to produce 50pc of the vehicles to flex-fuel standards by 2012 and would seek tax incentives to encourage gasoline stations to convert to flex-fuel pumps.
Obama would go further, though. He believes "all new vehicles sold in the US should be flexible-fuel vehicles", according to his campaign statement.
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