THE only international organisation to foresee the global financial crisis says the worst of it has probably passed.
The Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements says "glimmers of hope" are sparking a "rebound of risk appetite among investors", pushing up borrowing by more than a quarter so far this year.
"The key economic indicators remain at depressed levels," the bank says in its latest quarterly report. "But investors are focused instead on incipient signs that economic conditions are deteriorating less rapidly than before, while intensified policy actions to counter the crisis have helped bolster confidence."
In Australia, the latest Dun & Bradstreet survey found businesses more positive with expected sales, profits and employment all improving from a low base.
The sales expectations index was up 16 points to minus 32, the profits index up 17 points to minus 40 and the employment index up 2 points to minus 24.
About 8 per cent of the employers surveyed said they now expected to put on more staff, compared to 32 per cent who expected to downsize.
Dun & Bradstreet consultant Duncan Ironmonger said the survey indicated that after "a very bleak June quarter, there would be some improvement in the September quarter".
"In July, there is an income tax cut and government infrastructure spending will have an increasing positive impact on jobs and incomes in the quarters to follow," Dr Ironmonger said.
The next round of employment figures, to be released on Thursday, is nonetheless expected to be grim. Australia's unemployment rate fell from 5.7 per cent to 5.4 per cent from March to April in what market economists interpreted as statistical noise.
Westpac believes the rate returned to 5.7 per cent in May and will eventually climb above 8 per cent. It expects Thursday's figures to show an extra 30,000 Australians have lost their jobs.
The bookmaker Centrebet is also offering the shortest odds on an unemployment rate of 5.7 per cent and is offering a good return on Australia continuing to avoid a so-called "official recession".
Although the March quarter growth figures released last week had Australia avoiding the two consecutive economic contractions commonly taken to define a recession, the Alice Springs-based betting agency will pay $1.85 to anyone prepared to punt $1 on Australia staying out of the woods.
Dun & Bradstreet found that only 6 per cent of executives expected to increase their investment spending in the year ahead, while 17 per cent planned to cut it.
The Bank for International Settlements distinguished itself from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development by pointing to the dangers of a global financial crisis in 2007.
It says in its quarterly report that economic data is turning out to be less gloomy than expected, particularly in the United States.
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