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Agriculture to revisit the golden age of the 1950s and 60s?

27/06/2008 11:24:00 AM
If you missed agriculture's golden years of profitability during the 1950s and 1960s then stick around because they are about to return, says farm commodity analyst and former rural academic, John Chudleigh.

Emeritus Professor Chudleigh is bullish to the point of snorting and pawing the ground that a new era of higher global farm prices, particularly for grain, has dawned and won't end until the next major grain surplus.

"And I can't see that happening for five or 10 years," he told last week's AgriFocus 2025 conference in Sydney. It would take a decade of higher prices to drive the level of investment and research needed for the world to ensure its future food needs, he said.

But not all rural commodities will be winners from this forecast sustained burst in stagflation with the bullish professor ironically predicting beef prices were unlikely to stampede upwards because of their lack of competiveness with cheaper and more feed-efficient pork and chicken.

Dubbed "Professor Gloom and Doom" by his students at Orange Agricultural College, NSW, 20 years ago, Professor Chudleigh said world grain production and demand were now so tightly matched and stretched that a big natural disaster like a drought in a major production country could "set something alight that we have never seen before".

"Never in the history of the planet has its (farm) resources been so challenged to meet the demand of the market," he said.

World grain production was tipped to hit new planting and yield records in 2008-09 but that would do little to put a dent in rising demand being driven by the booming economies of China and India and the diversion of grains into biofuels, particularly in the US and the EU.

Coarse grains would run short next year as the world continued to lift pork and poultry production to meet protein demand, he said, which would force livestock feeders to turn to wheat.

In the coming 12 months China would import an estimated 38 million tonnes of soybeans from North and South America for its intensive livestock industries.

Professor Chudleigh said in the past six years farmers around the globe had lifted annual field crop plantings by 40 million hectares to 890m ha yet the world was still struggling with grain shortages that had sent prices for key cereal staples like rice and corn skyrocketing and triggered food riots in some countries.

"Even if we found an extra five to 10m ha of crop a year (by mixed farmers switching more land into cropping) we still won't meet demand," he said.

"Maybe I am getting carried away but I have never seen this before."

Professor Chudleigh retired as principal of Orange Agricultural College (now the Faculty of Rural Management, University of Sydney) in early 2000 but has also spent much of his working life monitoring world food and fibre markets and now publishes a rural commodity newsletter called Analysing Agriculture from Orange where he also has a beef farm.

He said the world food squeeze would also trigger a rise in protectionism and restrictions to trade as governments moved to combat higher prices.

"The World Trade Organisation and the Doha Round are dead," he said.

And while Mr Chudleigh said the fundamentals were in place to create a lengthy period of rural prosperity - most notably an underlying robust world economy, continued boom times in China, annual world population growth of 77m a year and the likelihood of economic recovery in the US - there were also some big negatives facing farmers.

The price of key inputs such as oil and fertilisers were rising almost weekly while higher interest rates were unlikely to put a lid on inflationary pressures as workers pressed strongly for wages growth to cover higher prices.

And there was the risk the world could be plunged into economic depression or wars because of higher food and resource prices and financial and political uncertainty.

And the biggest negative facing Australian farmers, as always, was the ongoing lack of water.

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Comments


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The Professor's calculations are missing one key variable: Climate Change. Young farmers in the audience suggested that they would start farming marginal land to meet the demand. This may be a very short term strategy. Neither Professor Chudleigh nor the "big bank" chief economist took Climate Change into account in the long-term projections they presented. No one can plan for the future without anticipating dramatic changes in temperature and rainfall. Strategies to drought proof properties should be the number one priority.
Posted by Michael Kiely on 30/06/2008 8:54:39 AM
Why do these people ignore carbon trading and other cost rises? Not one comment about carbon trading and yet some would have us believe that the world is "gunna heatin' up, mon". Farmers already bear the cost of Kyoto in land clearing.
Posted by zulu on 30/06/2008 9:09:40 AM
I spent over twenty years in broadacre grain production and cattle fattening. We sold out nearly ten years ago deciding not to continue gambling our lives on the vaguaries of nature and the pot of gold we knew agriculture was going to become in the future. The writing has certainly been on the wall, rural produce has been underpriced in all the years we farmed, but just knowing when things would change for the better was the problem.

Australian farmers know too well the political lack of sympathy for primary production. With a tougher stance on cheap imports and agricultural protection more in line with our competition we might have seen a more resilient and profitable rural sector and less of farmer suicides.

Unfortunately Liberal ideology prevailed. What doesn't kill you will make you tougher. Yeah, is that right? I don't think Australia is any better for that toughness.

Nothing has changed. None of the new crop of Labor pollies understands the bush either. If the next few years bring boom times for farming Labor will suffer as our urban populations scream at increasing food prices. There will be no joy at farmers doing well and the city divide will grow even wider.

Posted by Bruce on 30/06/2008 9:15:01 AM
Why then does the Queensland Government take the word of 'dinosaur greens' as gospel and lock up prime agricultural land with plenty of water in the Wet Tropics when the region still has significantly more than the threshold of 75% conserved. This is all in the name of 'vegetation management', entirely at the expense of the caring landowners, when predicted food shortages are a reality.
Posted by tully on 30/06/2008 11:46:09 AM
When Australia begins to tax carbon (as it should) prices for fertilisers and fuel will rise even more in aust than in countries with no carbon protocol, making our farmers less competitive. Combine that with climate change and I really don't see a bright short/medium term future for our farmers. And they are not likely to get much special consideration from Labor as they have consistently refused to vote for them. I hope I'm wrong because there are a lot of new baby bonus mouths to feed and a lot of old tired farmers who deserve a decent retirement.
Posted by graham brookman on 30/06/2008 12:33:07 PM
It is interesting to see the young misled by the Climate Change Industry. Like taking candy from babies.
Posted by Len on 30/06/2008 5:12:34 PM
why then isn't he a farmer? a lot of these blokes in my opinion are very good at sending farmers broke.
Posted by tom on 30/06/2008 6:07:12 PM
Farming back to the golden age of the '50s and '60s? Only an academic with his head in the cloisters could make that prediction. As someone who farms a family farm with access to the records of that time and the memories of then, I can say that we will NEVER return to that time. Not while in dollar terms we earn exactly the same number of dollars as they did (if we are lucky) with the inputs at ten times the price; with rocketing wages and add ons llike holiday pay, super, workers comp. (when we have none of these things ourselves). Not while we are forced to farm, half hog-tied with environmental rules, and taxes and paperwork & high inputs, and doing most of the work ourselves. Not while out best land has been swallowed for subdivisions because of the "Populate or perish" nonsense. Not while we have hoards of academics, experts, public servants etc to feed as well. Not while our supermarkets are stuffed with imported veges & fruit & grains. Not while our good fields lie idle. Never! Get real.

Tracey Blomfield, "Benooka" Bega.

Posted by female solo farmer on 30/06/2008 9:11:35 PM
Pollies are good at Politics, that all. Both parties have not placed agriculture on the pedestal it deserves. Food prices will go sky high (rice futures are already at usd 1,000 pmt) and then the pollies will want to place price restraints on prices. Forget the Nationals, they are city boys now, until the bush gets a real voice in Canberra , agriculture does not have a lot of future for coming generations.
Posted by Occa on 1/07/2008 11:04:00 PM
Beef expensive compared to chicken and pork? We get less than $3 per kg for our meat, the same as we were getting 35 years ago. Retailers are ripping off the public big time while we go down the gurgler and soon they will pay as the family farm is on the way out in all commodities. Why are farmers keen to well to MIS companies? Because farmers are sick and tired of being the peasants of society, working 80 hour weeks for an income less than we received 35 years ago. Wake up Australia.
Posted by Concerned Northerner on 8/07/2008 9:18:34 AM
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Emeritus professor John Chudleigh
Emeritus professor John Chudleigh

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