Australia could experience drought twice as often and the events will be twice as severe within 20 to 30 years, according to a new Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report.
Federa Agriculture Minister, Tony Burke, has today released the report commissioned by the Commonwealth as part of its review of national drought policy.
The overall review, announced in April, will help prepare farmers, rural communities and Australia's primary industries for the challenges of climate change, and shape government policy for future drought aid packages.
"While this is a scientific report, parts of those higher-end predictions read more like a disaster novel than a scientific report," Mr Burke told reporters.
"When we talk about extreme temperature, the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology have found that events of extreme temperature that used to occur one in every 20 to 25 years are now likely to occur one in every one to two years, as we move towards the year 2030.
"When it comes to rainfall, you go through the different projections and what you find is under the high scenario that we look like doubling the area that would be in drought and doubling the likelihood that it would be in drought.
"What this means, in terms of government policy, is we now know what would happen if we did nothing.
"If we failed to review drought policy, if we were to continue the neglect and pretend that the climate wasn't changing, we would be leaving our farmers out to dry, well and truly.
"And the reason is simple: what used to be regarded as a one in 20 to 25 year event in order to qualify for drought assistance is now going to hit far more often than it has before."
Other key findings of the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report include:
? the current definition of 'exceptional circumstances', which defines areas eligible to apply for Federal Government drought assistance, is out-of-date; and
? the government needs better ways of getting information about climate change preparedness to farmers.
As of June, there were 74 drought-declared areas across Australia receiving EC drought support.
South Australia and the southern Murray Darling Basin region are among the worst affected regions in Australia.
Since July 2002, the Federal Government has made more than 55,000 interest rate subsidy payments for farmers and small businesses.
More than 23,300 farmers and 1500 small business operators are receiving income support.
The Rudd Government has committed more than $760 million for EC assistance in the 2008-09 financial year.
The overall drought policy review also includes two other investigations: an independent expert panel headed by AgForce Queensland president Peter Kenny look at the social impact of drought, and an economic assessment by the Productivity Commission.
The Government has guaranteed that any policy changes will not affect farmers or businesses currently receiving Exceptional Circumstances funding.
The panel will hold public forums around the country starting with Tasmania on July 17 and moving through the Northern Territory, NSW, Western Australia, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
"This drought is infamous – the worst of its kind in a century in Australia – and farmers are still in its grip in many parts of the country," Mr Burke said.
"We've already seen farmers walking off the land and rural communities struggling to stay afloat in the face of widespread stress and depression.
"We need to act now to ensure we are better prepared for climate change in the future."
* The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report An assessment of the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of exceptional climatic events is available at:
www.daff.gov.au/droughtpoli cyreview or on freecall 1800 200 876.
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