EVER since it was identified that the global population would be at least 11.4 billion by the mid 2060’s, Professor Julian Cribb, editor and principal of specialist science commentary firm, Julian Cribb and Associates, has been alarmed at the lack of attention food security is given.
His portfolio of 8000 articles, 2500 media releases and eight books boast commentary littered with the need to confront what he deems a food shortage situation that if not addressed will lead to "profound" consequences.
Last week, Professor Cribb, who has won 32 awards for journalism, made a final plea with the release of his book “The coming famine: the global food crisis and what we can do to avoid it”.
“The central issue in the human destiny in the coming half century is not climate change or the global financial crisis,” Prof Cribb told a University of Melbourne Deans lecture in Melbourne last week. “It is whether humanity can achieve and sustain such an enormous harvest.”
The world has failed to address the looming food crisis, he said.
And its now going to have to try and double its food production with a “looming scarcity of just about everything necessary to produce high yields of food – water, land, nutrients, oil, technology, skills and stable climates”, he said.
“By 2050, seven to eight billion people will inhabit the world’s cities. They will use 2800 cubic kilometres of fresh water - more than the whole of irrigation agriculture uses worldwide today,” he said.
Desalination might supply water to some cities, Prof Cribb said, but for most for most cities it will be cheaper and simpler to grab the farmers' water – “which is already happening”.
In Prof Cribbs' view, the world is running out of time to respond.
“Though nobody has done any accurate assessment, it appears the world may currently be losing about one per cent (50,000 square kilometres) of farmland annually – due to a combination of degradation, urban sprawl, mining, recreation, toxic pollution and rising sea levels,” he said.
“If we’ve already lost 24pc and we lose around 1pc a year from here on, you can figure out for yourself how much land our grandchildren will have left to double their food supply.”
According to the International Energy Agency peak oil and gas are due to come in the coming decade, and the phosphorus peak was passed in 1989.
At the other end, The Stockholm Institute estimates that for the past fifty years over half the world’s food produced by farmers was thrown out as waste.
Recently the International Food Policy Research Institute and World Book have warned that climate change will lead to a 30pc drop in irrigated wheat production Asia and 15pc drop in rice. African food production is tipped to halve and drop by a third in India.
“Australia must capitalise on these predictions,” he said.
The only way to stem the looming food security problem is to change current practices, Prof Cribb said.
Doubling the investment in agricultural science, ending waste, and paying farmers more is needed.
“Today many people enjoy the cheapest food in human history. In rich countries it is one third the price our grandparents used to pay for it,” he said, then added that devoting just a tenth of the world’s current weapons spending to sustainable food production would deliver the $80 billion he believed needed to be invested.
Prof Cribb said trade barriers must be abolished in order for food production to go where it is most efficient.
“Almost everyone in society now receives fair pay – except for farmers.”
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