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 Hot summer nights but only average rain ahead 

Hot summer nights but only average rain ahead

26 Nov, 2008 10:52 AM
Most of Australia has a 50:50 chance of exceeding their average rainfall over summer, according to the latest seasonal forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology.

However, pockets of WA and NSW can expect wet feet, while Victoria and Tasmania will feel the heat.

In its forecast for December to February released today, the Bureau says a wet summer is likely in the west and the far east of Australia.

The national outlook for total rainfall over summer shows a moderate shift in the odds favouring higher than normal totals over western WA, as well as in parts of far northeast of NSW and southeast Queensland.

The Bureau says the pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Australia is mainly a result of continued warmth in the central and southeastern Indian Ocean, especially off the west coast of WA.

The chance of exceeding median rainfall over Australia this summer is between 60pc and 70pc (see map) over a large part of western to central WA.

The odds are between 60pc and 65pc over a small area in the far northeast of NSW extending into southeastern Queensland.

Across the rest of the country, the chance of exceeding the median rainfall this summer is between 40pc and 60pc, meaning that above average falls are about as equally likely as below average falls in these regions.

As for temperatures, the national outlook for daytime temperatures averaged over summer shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring warmer than normal conditions over the southeast and parts of Australia's tropical north.

Overnight temperatures are also likely to be higher than average in large regions across the north and west of the country, the Bureau says.

The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across Australia is mostly a result of continued warmth in the central to southeastern Indian Ocean, especially off the west coast of WA.

The Bureau says chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature this summer is between 60pc and 70pc for Tasmania, Victoria, southern NSW and southern South Australia (see map).

In parts of western Victoria and southeast SA the probabilities approach 75pc.

In addition there's a 60-65pc chance of higher than average temperatures for some regions adjacent to the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia.

Across the rest of the country, the Bureau says the chances of a warmer than average summer are between 40pc and 60pc, indicating roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.

The chance of the average minimum temperature exceeding the median this summer is between 60pc and 70pc for the northern Kimberley, northern NT, northern and eastern Queensland, the far northeast of NSW and much of WA (see map).

The odds increase to over 75pc over much of inland southwest WA and over parts of Cape York Peninsula.

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The odds of exceeding average rainfall this summer. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The odds of exceeding average rainfall this summer. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chance of exceeding average maximum temperatures this summer. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chance of exceeding average maximum temperatures this summer. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average minimum temperaturs between December and February. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average minimum temperaturs between December and February. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
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