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 Long, hot and wet spring ahead 

Long, hot and wet spring ahead

26/09/2008 10:05:00 AM
A long, hot spring is ahead for Australia, but also a wet one if you are farming anywhere but the southern Murray Darling Basin, according to the latest seasonal forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology.

For the period from October through to the end of December, it has forecast that nearly all of Australia has a strong probability of copping high than average maximum daytime temperatures and minimum night time temperatures.

But with that also comes a forecast for a strong chance of above average rainfall for all of northern and western Australia, but not for southern NSW, Victoria and South Australia (see maps).

The Bureau says the pattern of seasonal temperature and rainfall odds across Australia is mostly a result of continued warmth in the central to southeastern Indian Ocean, especially off the west coast of WA.

The chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature for October to December is between 60pc and 75pc for much of Australia, including the eastern states, most of SA, eastern and northern parts of the NT, and southern WA.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures increase to 75-85pc over southeastern parts of SA, southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.

Across the rest of WA and the NT, the chances of a warmer than average December quarter are between 45pc and 60pc, indicating roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions, the Bureau says.

On the rainfall outlook, the Bureau says it should be noted that the December quarter is a seasonally dry time of year in northwest WA, with heavy rain being uncommon.

It also noted there has been a moderate shift in the odds favouring drier conditions in southeastern Australia, including Tasmania.

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for October to December are between 70pc and 75pc for Central Queensland and western parts of WA, rising to 75-80pc in the Gascoyne region of WA.

Over much of the rest of central to western WA the odds for exceeding the median rainfall are between 60-70pc, as they are over northern NSW, the eastern NT and most remaining areas of Queensland.

In contrast, the chances of exceeding median rainfall for October to December are between 30pc and 40pc across Tasmania, southern Victoria (except east Gippsland) and southeast SA.

In coastal regions of southwest Victoria the chances drop a little below 30pc.

Across the rest of the country, including northern Victoria, southern NSW, much of SA and eastern WA, the chances of exceeding the median rainfall for October to December are between 40pc and 60pc, meaning that above average falls are about as equally likely as below average totals in these regions.

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Comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
i think u are right - it will be very sunny and thankyou for that, i really needed to know if it was going to rain back at school. But it turns out it won't rain so that's great to know.
Posted by josh on 27/09/2008 2:03:24 PM
yes its me again and i have checked another website but i know one fact - YOUR'S TELLS THE TRUTH! it has many facts in it. i also reaserch about weather and NT, AND Vic are in for a very hot spring. i have read in your article. Thanks for this i will shortly read and comment you again thankyou josh.
Posted by 1 on 27/09/2008 2:08:38 PM
Hi agin i know it's been the same day 2 in one day but i have fully completed 1 article and finished reaserching on a website. Of 4 websites i think yours is the best. thank you for this. make sure u do keep reaserching up the weather then u should be receiving more comments ps: i live in Australia, victoria (melbourne)
Posted by 1 on 27/09/2008 2:14:03 PM
Like Abare they have a 50/50 chance of being right. I could do the job a lot cheaper and be just as accurate.
Posted by Mark on 29/09/2008 10:03:14 AM
weather forecasters and politicians........the only two jobs in the world where you can continually get it wrong and stuff up most of the time and still keep your job and get well paid!!!
Posted by Cec on 29/09/2008 11:49:57 AM

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The probability of exceeding average maximum temperatures between October and December. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The probability of exceeding average maximum temperatures between October and December. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The probability of exceeding average minimum temperatures between October and December. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The probability of exceeding average minimum temperatures between October and December. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The probability of exceeding mediam rainfall between October and December. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The probability of exceeding mediam rainfall between October and December. Click on the image for an enlarged view. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Q: Should farm management deposits be considered as part of an asset test to determine if farmers are eligible for Government-funded drought assistance?

Yes
(49.6%)

No
(45.3%)

Undecided
(5.1%)

Total Votes: 603
Poll Date: 21/09/2008

26/11/2008 | If we're serious about roo farming, we'll need to start with a breeding program and kangaroo EBVs for marbling and tenderness.
 
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