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 Scientists tip 2010 as hottest yet 

Scientists tip 2010 as hottest yet

10 Dec, 2009 05:37 AM
THE past six months have been Australia's warmest winter-spring period on record and it is likely next year will set global temperature records.

Scientists predict that, whatever the outcome at Copenhagen, Australia must adapt to unprecedented heatwaves.

David Jones, the head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology, said yesterday that claims by sceptics the planet was cooling were wrong.

Every decade in Australia for the past 70 years had been getting warmer, and this decade has been the globe's warmest so far.

''Clearly global warming hasn't stopped, and it's warming in our backyard,'' said Dr Jones, who was speaking in Melbourne after the release of the World Meteorological Organisation's annual climate statement on Tuesday night.

Apart from temperature records, which have been criticised by sceptics amid the stolen email affair, heating was evident from sea-level rises, disappearing snow and shrinking sea ice, he said. ''The climate system's having the final say.''

Dr Jones said an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean - linked to hotter, drier conditions in Australia - would have an effect on the world's climate next year. ''There is a significant probability next year will be the globe's warmest year on record.''

Neville Nicholls, of Monash University, said the Copenhagen summit could determine ''how bad things are going to be'' in the longer term but some further warming was unavoidable. Adaptations such as heatwave-warning systems were needed.

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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero/ Having seen how the 'official' records are calculated, I have no doubt that this prediction will come true. It is time that all records were posted onto a website in their raw form, along with the computer calculations and rationales of what adjustments were made. So that they can be analysed by anyone who is able. The level of corruption and fraud being exposed by climategate has got me to the point where I no longer believe any reports about the climate.
Posted by Qlander, 10/12/2009 9:02:52 AM
Qlander, don't be surprised. Science is about getting your theories recognised, and lauded for your prowess in doing so. It is primarily about protecting reputations and gaining funding. The better your reputation, the faster your theory is recognised and the easier it is to put down (vilify) any competitors in your chosen field. The term, scientific fact, is actually an oxymoron.
Posted by denis, 11/12/2009 10:15:27 AM
Keep trying to disrupt the science and be sceptical, it is the right thing to do, but please accept when your sceptisim is proven wrong and stop rehashing arguments that have been disproven. Positng the data and codes is in process by some groups, the reason it has not been done as it will almost certainly be misinterpreted and modified to the point of irrelevance. Just because you want to fly a plane doesn't mean you can and it's the same with data - you have to know how to use it, it's limititaions and what the answers mean.
Posted by the lorax, 11/12/2009 12:09:07 PM
the lorax. I want the raw data and calculations are in the public domain. Then any misinterpretations and modifications will be in plain sight and easily refuted by people who understand data. The situation that we have at the moment is that this stuff is so sacred that can only be viewed by the high priests of the sanctum.
Posted by Qlander, 11/12/2009 2:48:05 PM
Climate records and data should not be about the science but just the facts which now seem to get fiddled. I hear Penrith had its hottest November on record but records had only been kept for 14 years. Easy to show Sydney temperatures are increasing if older average temperature records are from closer coastal suburbs and more recent average temperatures include hotter western suburbs. This sort of thing not only happens in Sydney but all around the world.
Posted by Max, 11/12/2009 7:38:16 PM
The problem with the data collected is that there's not enough of it. Modelling and hypotheses are being based on (relatively) little data taken from unbalanced bands across the globe for a very short period of time. In this state the data is very difficult to use because the shortfalls must be extrapolated. Every extrapolation (or guess) reduces the accuracy of the reporting throughout the remainder. It's odd that this is very much a global concern yet so far as I can see, not one country has thrown funding at providing instruments to accurately measure the data worldwide or even across their own nations so that accurate modelling can be achieved. Australia removed 80% of its weather stations along the East Coast 15 years ago to save money. They were removed because some idiot told another idiot that the weather trends could be extrapolated from fewer data sources. Not true. And now, no longer accurate forecasts are the standard for the country. Climate change has been noted since the late 70s. In that time temperature, atmospheric, ocean data collectors and measuring instruments have been removed or left to rot, due to cost-efficiency factors. Do the math.
Posted by TM, 13/12/2009 7:34:56 AM

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