The Bureau says below average falls are more likely in northern parts of both Queensland and the Northern Territory, whereas a wetter than normal three months is indicated for northwest and central WA.

In southern Queensland and NSW the chance of exceeding median rainfall are about 50 per cent, but further south in Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia this rises to 55pc (see map).

The Bureau says the pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Australia has been produced using recent Pacific and Indian Ocean temperature patterns, with the warm Pacific (El Niño) having the greater influence.

An El Niño event persists across the Pacific Basin, with most leading climate models suggesting the tropical Pacific will gradually cool during the next three to six months.

The influence of El Niño on Australia's rainfall patterns often weakens in the second half of summer - the SOI is approximately −5 for the 30 days ending 16 January.

The El Nino is also driving the odds for the national outlook for mean maximum temperatures over the late summer to mid-autumn period.

A moderate to strong tendency in the odds favours above average values in a broad region covering much of northern and eastern Australia, and in the west of WA.

In contrast, there is a 60-70pc chance of cooler than normal days averaged across the season over Tasmania, Victoria, southern and western SA and the southern fringes of NSW.

The average minimum temperature for February to April is favoured to be above the long-term median minimum temperature over much of Australia's northern half extending into the southern half of WA.