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 US not expected to roll back ethanol mandate 

US not expected to roll back ethanol mandate

19 Jul, 2008 05:00 AM
The United States Environmental Protection Agency is not expected to roll back the Government's mandated ethanol content in fuels, arguing the corn cost incurred have been worth it.

Speaking at the Cattle Industry Summer Conference in Denver, Colorado, Dan Basse, president of AgResource Consulting Group, said ethanol production "is here to stay".

He based this on a conversation with officials at the EPA, noting that EPA administrator Stephen Johnson is leaning toward not rolling back the ethanol mandate as requested by Texas Governor Rick Perry.

"I don't think you're going to get that (rollback) on July 25," he said, noting that Johnson's position is that the fuel supply that's being produced with ethanol is worth the corn costs that have occurred.

Mr Basse said this will put tremendous pressure on corn prices in the future because it's doubtful enough corn acres can be found and planted in the future.

And corn yields are not moving up off trend line rapidly enough to meet demand for corn.

"I'm reducing usage everywhere except ethanol," he said.

"This will keep corn over $6(/bu.) for years to come," he said.

But with crude oil prices at $US130 per barrel, corn prices will have to reach $8.25-8.50/bu before ethanol producers can't afford to refine the fuel, Basse said.

However, beef cattle and dairy producers attending the conference noted two presentations concerning the impact of ethanol production on industry profitability.

In the first presentation, Cal Dooley, chief executive officer and president of the Grocery Manufacturers of America, said that corn costs have increased 190pc since 2005, soybean costs have increased 180pc and wheat is up 174pc - increases that he said are among "the most rapid in history".

He also noted that food inflation is up 6pc this year and is projected to increase 7.5pc in 2008, a pace that's twice as fast as that of the general inflation.

Mr Dooley emphasised that the culprit "is not just ethanol" but includes a growing population around the world - with a growing middle class and an unprecedented demand for US commodities - energy, extreme weather and the weak US dollar.

However, he then went on to cite sources that have put as much as 75pc of the increases in feed and food prices on the US "food-to-fuel policy".

He said Congress needs to "restore" a market-oriented biofuels policy, including reducing and reforming the blender's tax credit and tariff on imported ethanol and restructure the ethanol mandate schedule.

He also called for investments in second-generation biofuels technologies.

The current ethanol situation has drummed up food prices and has had an adverse affect on anti-hunger work, he said, adding how it has just minimal environmental benefits and won't significantly change dependence on foreign oil.

"It's time to turn the page" on the food-to-fuel policy, Dooley said.

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The decision by the US to subsidise ethanol production has caused the grain prices to rise to a level much closer to the real cost of production.

This should enable the removal of direct subsidies on grain production. This in turn will give us the "level playing field' that was promised to us but not delivered 25 years ago.

Another thing about high food costs. Nobody has yet mentioned the impact that environmental legislation has had on the cost of food production, nor the impediment that environmental legislation places in the way of increasing food production to alleviate the shortage.

Posted by Ted O'Brien, 21/07/2008 8:39:49 AM

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