NEW official figures show government spending running about $5 billion below forecasts, raising the prospect it has been unable to spend stimulus money as fast as it had planned.
The Finance Department update has the government spending $192.1 billion in the seven months to January, rather than the forecast $197.4 billion, a shortfall of $5.3 billion.
By contrast tax revenue is little changed on the budget forecast, being just half a billion higher.
''It looks as if they're finding it harder than anticipated to get stimulus spending out the door,'' said Access Economics' director, Chris Richardson.
''If maintained this will be good for the budget bottom line. This year's deficit will come in nearer to $50 billion than the forecast deficit of $58 billion.''
In releasing the update, the Finance Minister, Lindsay Tanner, warned care should be taken in comparing actual with projected spending because of variations in the timing of payments.
But Mr Richardson said the $5.3 billion shortfall was big and could not be explained solely by lower than expected unemployment payments.
Access and forecasters including the ANZ and Commonwealth banks are forecasting a dramatically improved budget position in future years and a swift return to surplus as improved tax revenues start to flow from much higher resource prices.
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