News 
 National Rural News 
 Agribusiness and General 
 Political 
 Just how long will this motley crew last? 

Just how long will this motley crew last?

08 Sep, 2010 05:41 AM
NOW the uncertainty of a hung parliament has vanished, a new uncertainty emerges - can Australia's 43rd Parliament survive a full term?

The history of governments formed from hung parliaments is vexed. While some have resulted in reform, others have led to unworkable situations and an early return to the polls.

And despite the rhetoric of the three rural independents about stable government, they would be well aware of the instability of the new parliament.

That may have been what key independent Rob Oakeshott meant when he announced he and Tony Windsor would be supporting Labor. ''This is going to be a cracking parliament,'' Mr Oakeshott promised. ''It's going to be ugly but it's going to be beautiful in its ugliness.''

While this is the first federal hung parliament since 1940, there have been 10 deadlocked elections in the states since 1989, when the Tasmanian ALP formed a minority government with support from the state Greens.

Of those parliaments, not all survived a full term, with several returning to the polls early and one, Queensland in 1996, collapsing within months after a by-election saw the deadlock turn into a majority for the opposition.

Based on the lessons of those governments, what the survival of the new parliament truly hangs on is the stability of the alliance formed by the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, the three independents and the sole Greens member, Adam Bandt.

While Ms Gillard has ensured a majority in the House of Representatives today, that could change with little notice.

While Labor only commands 72 of the 150 votes in the House of Representatives, the addition of Mr Bandt and three of the four independents (Rob Oakeshott, Andrew Wilkie and Tony Windsor) will provide them 76 seats, or a majority of two.

All it would take, given that slender majority, would be the decision by one of the independents to renege on their promise to allow supply and the parliament would return to deadlock.

It would then be unable to function and, assuming no further rounds of horse trading, the only result would be a return to the polls.

Another danger would be the resignation or incapacitation of one of the 76 MPs who have formed government. That would require a by-election for that member's seat and if it went to the opposition or a third party, it would leave the minority government in an untenable position.

Hung parliaments have also resulted in positive reform, as the 1991 NSW election proved.

Substantial parliamentary reform was achieved through the advocacy of the independents, which included among them current key independent Mr Windsor.

The reforms included changes to question time, the introduction of budget estimates committees and increased scrutiny of legislation.

However, something else the history of hung parliaments in Australia has taught us, according to the ABC election analyst Antony Green, may not be good news for the Gillard government.

''New governments with independents on the crossbenches have generally done better than old governments,'' Mr Green said.

That may be partly because an old government, even if it is returned following a hung parliament, has just suffered a large slip in their vote and could be seen as ''the loser'', he said.

But he cautioned that without seeing the 43rd Parliament in action, it is impossible to say whether the Labor minority government will survive a full term.

''When we look back we'll have to make that decision. Were they a government in terminal decline or will they recover?''

Print
Increase Text Size
Decrease Text Size

comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
They were a government in terminal decline before the election and hence the reason they lost a 17-seat majority. The very last thing we need is to be governed by a puppet of the Greens and that is what Labor has become.
Posted by jock, 8/09/2010 10:59:38 AM
Mining tax pulled out of any deal. Didn't take long did it. It will be interesting to see just how much stomach these so-called independants have as they are slowly marginalised in the general running of Labor's agenda and then asked to put their hand up to carry the day. "I thought it was part of the deal." Good one Tony.
Posted by Mick, 8/09/2010 11:16:31 AM
Amazing the impetuous tone not only of the articles author but jock and Mick, all ready to snipe at the situation before the ink has dried on the paper. Why not give it a chance before decrying its existence?
Posted by daw, 8/09/2010 9:20:32 PM
76 seats in a 150 seat parliament is a majority of 1. If one seat changes hands, that's 75 all...get it? That's one Green or one semi-Green, or one of two agrarian socialists, or one disffected Labor backbencher, one by-election that goes against the ALP...just ONE.
Posted by ME Again, 9/09/2010 9:26:00 AM

post a comment


Screen name  *
Email address  *
Remember me?
Comment  *
 
We invite and encourage our readers to post comments. Comments are moderated and will appear as soon as our editor has approved them. When posting comments you agree to be bound by our Terms and Conditions.
Related Coverage
ARTICLES
MULTIMEDIA
07 September, 2010
POLL
Q: Do you believe a minority government formed with the support of the independents can provide a stable and effective administration?

Yes
(23.5%)

No
(70.6%)

Undecided
(6%)

Total Votes: 904
Poll Date: 05 September, 2010

Most popular articles




Stock & Land







Weather brought to you by:

Weatherzone

Classifieds

Front Page

Current Issue
Privacy Policy | Conditions of Use | Advertising Terms | Copyright © 2012. Fairfax Media.
 SEND...
 SAVE...
 SHARE...