MALCOLM TURNBULL'S leadership is on the brink after his decision to put his job on the line over climate change backfired when he was rolled by the backbench.
In extraordinary scenes last night, Mr Turnbull declared he was the leader and would cut a deal with Labor on the emissions trading scheme.
If anybody was opposed, they should move a motion and challenge him.
"I'm the leader, right. And if people are unhappy with the leader, they can take whatever steps they deem appropriate. But I am the leader and I have made the call," he said.
A Liberal source opposed to the decision said that during the day's party meeting 40 MPs spoke against accepting the $7 billion worth of Government concessions and 33 in favour. When shadow cabinet was included the numbers were 47-46 in Mr Turnbull's favour.
Afterwards Wilson Tuckey and Dennis Jensen gave notice that a leadership spill motion would be moved.
Kevin Andrews and Tony Abbott were both considering challenging. Joe Hockey said he would not stand.
The Liberal Senate leader, Nick Minchin, was so angry he was threatening to resign from the front bench so he would be free to vote against the emissions scheme which Mr Turnbull wants passed this week.
The events came at the end of a party-room meeting lasting almost eight hours to decide whether to back Labor's amended scheme that gave the Coalition more than $6 billion in extra concessions to heavy polluters.
By about 7pm, an exasperated Mr Turnbull was claiming a majority of three. He calculated this by adding the individual views of the 20 shadow cabinet members and took into account the Nationals, all of whom are hostile.
"That's enough, we're going to vote for it," he told the party room.
He stormed out and rumours swept Parliament that there would be a leadership challenge. Mr Turnbull was coaxed back into the meeting and it resumed at 8pm.
Mr Abbott spoke to try to calm things down and Senator Minchin gave Mr Turnbull a way out. He said Mr Turnbull would have majority support if he allowed the Senate to delay the legislation until February, after the Copenhagen climate conference.
Mr Turnbull refused and the meeting was called off.
"I've never seen such a wild bunch in the party room," an MP said.
Following weeks of negotiation, Mr Turnbull and his emissions trading spokesman, Ian Macfarlane, had secured more than $6 billion in extra compensation and exemptions for big polluters from the Government.
But Mr Turnbull's authority took a hammer blow in the afternoon when Andrew Robb spoke against accepting the deal. Mr Robb was the emissions trading spokesman until five weeks ago when he moved to the backbench to deal with depression. His attack on the amended scheme was loudly applauded by the climate change dissidents and infuriated Mr Turnbull's supporters.
"Worst act of bastardry I have seen in politics," a senior frontbencher said.
Mr Abbott and Mr Andrews were suspected of positioning themselves for a leadership challenge when they left the meeting together for about an hour in the morning.
The first move came in the afternoon when Mr Tuckey threatened a spill because Mr Turnbull would not allow the matter to be decided by secret ballot.
"I'll be back here with others to have a secret ballot on the leadership," he threatened.
It is believed that under Liberal Party rules, it would be up to Mr Turnbull to call the meeting. But it would be hard for him to resist the demands for a test of his leadership.
Mr Andrews told The Age he did not think Mr Turnbull could ignore the call for the special meeting to test his leadership. ''I will be a candidate,'' he said. ''I believe we need to reconnect with the grass roots of our party and with the Australian people.''
Mr Andrews said if he were leader he would support deferring the emissions legislation until after next month's climate change conference in Copenhagen and sending it to a Senate committee for further analysis.
But one of the likely alternative leaders, shadow treasurer Joe Hockey, told The Age late last night: "There's no vacancy and I'm not a candidate."
Even so, there was talk last night about persuading Hockey to run.
But frontbencher George Brandis tried to play down talk of a spill. ''Yet another meeting is the last thing most of my colleagues want,'' he said.
Deputy leader Julie Bishop, asked if she would back Mr Turnbull's leadership come what may, said: ''I support the leader''.
So volatile is the situation that no one wanted to predict what would happen today, let alone tomorrow.
The Nationals have formally split from the Liberals on the scheme. They will oppose and delay where they can.
Sen. Minchin, if he doesn't resign from the frontbench in protest as well, will decide Senate tactics. He is bound by shadow cabinet solidarity to usher the legislation through.
If he does, there still exists the potential to embarrass Turnbull. The five Nationals will cross the floor. Up to a dozen Liberals will do the same. One of them will be Minchin if he quits.
Sen. Minchin had appealed to Mr Turnbull in last night's meeting to accept a delay move on the legislation as a face saver.
But Mr Turnbull suggested the Opposition would have to get someone else if it wanted to take that course.
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