POLITICAL analysts say the Australian public, voters and media can expect the unexpected to continue again in 2012; as was the case this year with the first full year of this tense and tight, hung Federal parliament.
The year started with considerable question marks hanging over the government’s mandate to deliver major legislative reforms like the Carbon Tax and the opposition drooling at the likelihood of an election.
And it ended sensationally with the shock resignation of Harry Jenkins from the speaker’s chair in the House of Representatives.
Mr Jenkins was replaced by Peter Slipper who went from being a Liberal on the outer, to an independent MP now starting down the barrel of certain defeat in his home electorate of Fisher, on the QLD Sunshine Coast, at the 2013 election but determined to have his time in the sun before his inevitable departure.
That bold move now gives the Labor government an extra critical vote in the tenuous, hung parliament with Mr Jenkins taking up his position in the chamber while denying the government a potential vote, with Mr Slipper’s elevation to the chair.
That’s likely to make the passage legislation through the House of Representatives slightly less complicated in 2012 but the Greens still hold the balance of power in the Senate and will continue using that position to achieve favourable amendments.
Leadership speculation dogged the Prime Minister throughout 2011 and will continue to be a major source of frustration, unrest and political instability for the government next year.
Constant rumours suggest former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd still has eyes for the top job or other ambitious Labor up and comers like Bill Shorten, with a recent promotion to the ministry, are waiting eagerly in the wings.
Even if Mr Rudd doesn’t mount a formal challenge for the party leadership next year, he will continue stirring from the background and distracting attention from Ms Gillard and towards his direction, either as the Foreign Minister or a disgruntled former leader.
Despite the party slumping to record lows in voter opinion polls during the year, in particular leading up to the Carbon Tax vote and the High Court ruling out the Malaysian asylum seeker proposal, Ms Gillard’s star started shining brighter as the year rounded out.
The angry scenes of two anti-carbon tax rallies and the convoy of no confidence, which called for a change of government due its lack of mandate to implement the carbon tax, have faded faster than the Coalition would like but it may not take much rummaging or rapture to stir those memories, when the carbon tax eventually comes into play.
Ms Gillard’s leadership prowess emerged stronger once the Carbon Tax legislation passed through both houses of parliament with help from the Greens in the Senate, along with other key legislative agendas like the Mining Tax.
Her dignified public performance during high level diplomatic visits from the Queen and US President Barack Obama also boosted her ratings.
Analysts say another political conundrum working in the PM’s favour is the perception that Coalition leader Tony Abbott is overly negative, lacks credible policy alternatives, or is not selling them positively enough and is a less credible Prime Ministerial option than Ms Gillard.
But the government still has a long way to claw back from its unprecedented popularity slump.
And expect Mr Abbott to again sound like a broken record next year, repeating his dogmatic mantra that the Prime Minister, six days before the last election, stood up before the Australian people and said, “There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead”.
And expect again the PM to respond in justification that the government’s policies are in the national interest and that’s the direction she’ll continue driving this unprecedented parliamentary structure.
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