Despite some opportunistic dry sowing efforts in the past few weeks, the next fortnight will be critical for NSW canola growers, who need substantial rain to have any chance of planting a predicted four-year-high crop of 235,550 hectares.
With only half that area sown so far and the sowing window for canola rapidly closing, time is running out.
Of the area already sown, an estimated 20 per cent has gone in dry, along with that sown after patchy rain in the past month. All the crops will need rain in coming weeks.
The big plus for anybody with crop already in, or able to sow extra acreage in time, is that canola prices are holding at near-record levels of more than $700/tonne (delivered port).
But NSW Department of Primary Industries technical specialist for oilseeds and pulses, Don McCaffery, Orange, said it was unlikely much more canola would be planted, particularly in the north.
"The next rain event, if it eventuates in the next week or so, will be crucial," he said.
"The 20pc sown dry, predominantly in the Central West, needs rain to germinate and that which has been sown on moisture is probably starting to run out of reserves."
Some growers would dry sow on the prospect of falls in the next week, but most wouldn't contemplate sowing beyond about May 25, depending on where they were.
"Eastern areas might go right to the end of the month, but west of the Newell Highway there probably won't be much sown from now on," he said.
"In the north, there could be some sown still on the Liver-_pool Plains."
Cargill Australia Ltd canola merchant, Lachlan Herbert, Melbourne, said heightened demand had driven canola prices to record levels in the past six to 12 months.
While the market had come back from the peaks, canola this week was trading at track prices of about $700/tonne delivered Newcastle and Port Kembla.
"One of the biggest influences is strong crude oil prices which have gone to recent highs of $US126/barrell," he said.
"Crude oil has risen significantly in the past year, and, with the technological advances of biodiesel, we have been able effectively to add demand to the traditional vegetable oil market.
"It is new demand that, rather than simply being a food product, it (canola) can also be used for fuel."
For NSW growers, prices would also be influenced by whether NSW production could meet local crushing demand.
"If we have a crop that is below local crushing capacity, it will lift the market," he said.
"If we produce a crop big enough to cover that crushing capacity and there is enough to export into the international market, then prices will remain at the mercy of international levels."
The Australian Oilseeds Federation has predicted a 1.8 million tonne national crop – up from 1.069mt last year.
Nearly 800,000t of that is likely to come from Western Australia where above-average rain in April have seen farmers almost complete the planting of an estimated 615,000ha.