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 Fertiliser prices fall, but has the market hit bottom? 

Fertiliser prices fall, but has the market hit bottom?

15 Jan, 2009 11:00 AM
Retail fertiliser prices in Australia continue to drop and an ANZ Bank report has suggested farmers will likely pay less for their fertiliser this year than 2008.

However, there are some signs that the bottom of the market has been reached and there will be a rising in the international price over coming months.

New boy DFI has continued its aggressive pricing strategy and has lowered the price of phosphate fertilisers DAP and MAP to $870 a tonne, with the prospect of a further rebate taking this price even lower.

Meanwhile, author of the ANZ fertiliser market report, rural and regionalist economist, Paul Deane, said that a combination of freight and oil prices would most likely work to keep prices lower than last year, but warned that Chinese government policy surrounding its export tariff could play a big in determining Australian farmgate prices.

And there are signs the bottom of the market has been reached.

DFI managing director, Leighton Huxtable, said he had heard there had been recent fertiliser orders placed by both India and Brazil as the price reached acceptable levels for them to re-enter the market.

International fertiliser monitor Fertilizerworks has also reported a small rebound in prices, especially urea, although it was cautious on how sustained the price rally would be.

Mr Huxtable said all growers who ordered fertiliser with the rebate option at the previously nominated higher price would be eligible for to a rebate of $160/t.

He said the drop could be attributed to a further drop in world phosphorus prices and a more favourable Australian foreign exchange rate.

Mr Deane said the transformation of the fertiliser market had been "breath-taking", pointing to a 60pc drop in DAP and a 55pc fall in urea prices.

He said the Australian scenario of retailers being caught with high priced inventory that they wished to clear before lowering prices, but farmers were aware of the drop in prices and have refused to buy until prices start to fall.

And he said that with oil prices floundering and natural gas, crucial in the manufacture of ammonia, used in ammonium phosphate fertilisers and urea, closely following oil’s lead, it was likely fertiliser would not dramatically rise this year.

According to Mr Deane, crude oil prices are expected to be particularly weak in the first half of 2009, with an increasing likelihood that prices will fall back to the US$30-35per barrel range in the March 2009 quarter.

However, he warned that the constantly changing Chinese fertiliser tariff could play a role, such as when the Chinese government slapped on an additional 100pc export duty on DAP, MAP and urea exports to put a cap on Chinese domestic fertiliser prices.

This was a big reason for the sharp spike in fertiliser prices early in 2008, and was followed by a further hike, taking total export tariffs to 175pc.

The tariff has since been rescinded in an attempt to revitalise a Chinese industry priced out of the international market, but Mr Deane said the policy backflip was likely to keep global fertiliser prices depressed through to the end of January 2009, but beyond this it was difficult to gauge how much fertiliser from China is likely to be exported for the remainder of the year.

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Good on you Leighton for offering realistic prices for our farmers.
Posted by Craig- C&D, 16/01/2009 11:06:55 AM

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Leighton Huxtable
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