Rising optimism about the outlook for 2009 allowed markets to creep higher across the board at the end of 2008 trading in US grain futures markets.
Any potential major price surge, however, appears to have been held back by traders worried about index fund rebalancing to start 2009.
They’re worried that index fund managers will need to sell corn, soybean and wheat contracts in early January, to rebalance their portfolios to the desired percentage mix after the fall in oil prices.
Yet, underlying supportive sentiment lifted prices into the December close, with speculative short-covering and end-user buying providing just enough of a lift to push prices higher in thin holiday trade volume.
Longer-term, the speculative funds see the food commodities as a good investment that should appreciate in value in 2009.
To this point they've been reluctant to build ownership until they're convinced that newly-established stability in the financial markets will hold into next year.
Much of December's price strength came from modest end-user buying and active fund short covering.
Wheat prices, in a late surge in the outside markets at the end of 2008, lifted wheat again for one more final run at the resistance to the $6/bus barrier.
Then, the Chicago March wheat futures finally managed to close above the resistance on Friday, the first day of trading in 2009, in light holiday-mode trading.
On Friday, in the first sale for 2009, Chicago March '09 wheat futures closed at $6.11/bus.