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Rising optimism over 2009 grains prices

05 Jan, 2009 11:25 PM
Rising optimism about the outlook for 2009 allowed markets to creep higher across the board at the end of 2008 trading in US grain futures markets.

Any potential major price surge, however, appears to have been held back by traders worried about index fund rebalancing to start 2009.

They’re worried that index fund managers will need to sell corn, soybean and wheat contracts in early January, to rebalance their portfolios to the desired percentage mix after the fall in oil prices.

Yet, underlying supportive sentiment lifted prices into the December close, with speculative short-covering and end-user buying providing just enough of a lift to push prices higher in thin holiday trade volume.

Longer-term, the speculative funds see the food commodities as a good investment that should appreciate in value in 2009.

To this point they've been reluctant to build ownership until they're convinced that newly-established stability in the financial markets will hold into next year.

Much of December's price strength came from modest end-user buying and active fund short covering.

Wheat prices, in a late surge in the outside markets at the end of 2008, lifted wheat again for one more final run at the resistance to the $6/bus barrier.

Then, the Chicago March wheat futures finally managed to close above the resistance on Friday, the first day of trading in 2009, in light holiday-mode trading.

On Friday, in the first sale for 2009, Chicago March '09 wheat futures closed at $6.11/bus.

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Their is evidence coming out of the northern hemisphere of the area planted to wheat droping back dramatially due to the massive drop in wheat prices and huge increase in production cost.

Very shortly the traders will be shocked at how much Australia's area planted to wheat will drop, for the same reason.

Also, with no National Pool, growers are not prepared to take all the risk, as they had to do so with the last crop, only to see the traders drop the price well under import parity.

We can no longer plant a crop and receive well under the cost of production.

The other major effect of loosing the National Pool is banks will not offer crop liens - a form of production finance used by many farmers under enorous financial strain to plant next years crop. Without this form of finance many growers will not be able to plant a crop. The Government is to blame for this developing world food shortage.

I wonder if Murray Jones and his small group of supporters at Grains council of Australia are proud of their achievements!

Posted by Mark, 6/01/2009 7:57:42 AM

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Arlan Suderman, Farm Futures market analyst.
Arlan Suderman, Farm Futures market analyst.

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