Callum Downs markets analyst Malcolm Bartholomaeus says he’s not sure whether farmers will get full value out of on-farm storage, despite the upsurge in on-farm storage this harvest, with the start of wheat market deregulation.
“I think farmers may have gone a little too far with on-farm storage this season,” he says.
“There is no sense in storing grain that is going to be exported.
“If there’s more grain held on-farm than is used domestically, then it is just going to mean higher storage costs for the farmer.”
Mr Bartholomaeus says he hopes farmers will use more of a suite of marketing tools next year than they do currently.
“Growers must use all the tools they can, rather than just relying on one or two.” he says.
He believe that both globally and domestically wheat plantings and tonnages will come down next year.
“We’ll see people who went wheat-on-wheat this year leave the paddock out next year, so I expect plantings to be down.
“So the ability to sustain the current acreage of wheat isn’t there - I don’t think we’ll see farmers as willing to invest in expensive fertiliser to bring the yields up,” he says.
Farmers, therefore, can expect some opportunities next year to market their wheat at better prices than we have now.
Internationally, however, another good year from the cheap exporters in the Black Sea is likely to put some downwards pressure on milling wheat prices next year.
“Whenever there ís good production in the cheaper countries, it will always put pressure on milling wheat prices,” he says.