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Russia: ag superpower or basket case?

29 Aug, 2008 08:35 AM
With the capability to bump its 2007 cereal crop of 75 million tonnes up to 300 million tonnes without breaking virgin ground, Russia presents a major threat to Australia's grain exports.

Or does it?

Just as Australia was deregulating its wheat market in late July, Moscow announced the formation of a State-controlled grain trading company that will control up to half Russia's grain exports.

Russia has 40 million hectares of fertile farmland that has lain fallow for 15 years, since the dismantling of the Soviet regime. Now it wants to use them.

The multi-billion-dollar question is: Can Russia get its act together?

Agricultural analyst Richard Ferguson, writing in the Financial Times gave those estimates above, of Russia's potential for expansion in wheat output.

Officially, with the country’s Agency for the Regulation of Food Markets operating as a State trader, Moscow hopes to double Russian grain exports over five years, from 13 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes.

The outstanding question is whether Russia has the institutional capability to achieve this goal.

In July, this newspaper reported on a review of agricultural capability in Russia and the Ukraine commissioned by the Australian Farm Institute from South Georgia University associate professor Greg Brock, and earlier reported in Gregor Heard’s article, “The Russian Myth”.

Dr Brock listed the hurdles the two countries have to negotiate before they are capable of making a substantial impact on world food markets, including “infrastructure, petty interference by local and regional governments, surprise mandates from the federal government, xenophobia and basic neglect”.

“Without fundamental changes in how these economies operate, their impact on world grain markets will remain modest for some time to come,” Dr Brock wrote.

Russia specialist Dr Ariel Cohen of the conservative American think-tank The Heritage Foundation is equally scathing on the subject of Russia alone.

“Unfortunately for Russia, its Ag Ministry is corrupt,” Dr Cohen told Rural Press.

“Even people close to Prime Minister Putin recognise that and have told me so.

“The way to increase grain production in Russia is not through the universally failed state control and centralisation process, but through developing private ownership of land, transparency, the rule of law, training of farmers, development of private rural finance, and entrepreneurship.

“These are commodities which are in short supply in Russia since Stalin starved and destroyed the peasantry and collectivised agriculture in the 1930s.

"Russia still hasn't fully recovered from those genocidal policies.”

At this point, Dr Cohen said, Australia should be watching, with more concern, Ukraine and Kazakhstan rather than Russia.

But Gil Stassen, managing director of the International Livestock Resources & Information Centre (ILRIC) in Armidale, NSW, disagrees.

Four years ago, Mr Stassen identified Russia as an emerging agricultural powerhouse and was subsequently instrumental in developing the lucrative live export trade in Australian beef seedstock to the Federation.

“Russians are a smart race,” Mr Stassen says, after several extended visits to the country.

“They are sophisticated and committed.

"The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has committed billions of dollars toward developing the country’s agricultural capabilities, and I think it would be naive to think that Russia won’t be a threat to our own export markets in the short to medium term.

“It’s important to remember that their agricultural development is market driven.

"They are already paying to import the commodities they want to produce.

"They are importing nearly a million metric tonnes of beef, they are the largest beef importer in the world, but they now have the capability and the desire to be a major agricultural player themselves.”

He agrees that infrastructure and corruption stand in the way of progress.

But he doesn’t believe these factors will halt development.

“What’s happening there is mind-boggling. You can’t underestimate the Russians,” he says.

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Currently, black sea origin wheat is dominating sales into Asia, where buyers are desperate to restock.

You can price Ukraine or Russian wheat today delivered in the low U$S300/metric tonne CFR range. However, the protein is in the 10pc range, so higher protein and quality wheat will achieve price premiums.

Posted by Bill Bleakley, 29/08/2008 12:00:25 PM

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