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 Wool's EMI to hit 660c/kg before any price revival 

Wool's EMI to hit 660c/kg before any price revival

02 Nov, 2008 06:25 PM
Wool's eastern market indicator could go as low as 660c/kg before there is a revival next year.

Callum Downs Commodity News analyst Malcolm Bartholomeus says it is "unfortunately a case of welcome to the world commodity squeeze and this is now officially ugly".

"It is no different to copper, oil, corn or wheat. We can now add wool to the list of commodities that have fallen rapidly of late," Mr Bartholomeus said.

"It is pretty disappointing but it is the reality of the world situation at the moment."

Mr Bartholomeus says long term trends suggest the EMI can be expected to fall another 100 cents to 660-670 cents as part of a "normal" downward cycle.

"It could be well into 2009 when the market rebounds, it is very hard to tell in this climate," he said.

When asked what the future of wool was given the unviable nature of growing wool at such prices, the market analyst pointed to the various times in the last few years when the EMI has been well above 900 cents per kilogram clean.

"I mean woolgrowers have had the chance to capture these prices many times, whether it be through holding wool over or forward selling which is has not always been useful it has to be said.

"But in recent years we have had the EMI well over 900 cents from early 2002 to mid 2003 and for much of the period from late 2006 to the middle of this year.

"Being more opportunistic with pricing is the way the woolgrower must sell to survive and I can't believe some people were still advocating holding wools at the start of this year.

"There was plenty of warning that this was coming and that prices offered at the start of this year were very good."

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comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
The only way to arrest this slide is to stand firm now. Set realistic reserves. By realistic I mean a price that supports continuing production so that traders can see a future to work in. Growers and their bank managers have begun to do this in recent days. Now they must hold their nerve, hoping that traders will soon find a basis on which to make sound marketing plans. Whatever happens they must not accept 660c. 800c is much too low. I repeat my call to think 1150c.
Posted by Ted O'Brien., 3/11/2008 6:03:51 AM
This is another good way of pushing the market even lower. Customers for our wool typically sit on their hands when market commentators make these sort of comments. Better to say nothing or talk about the new opportunities for wool to lift demand.
Posted by sideline, 3/11/2008 6:11:17 AM
I would suggest that Malcolm is one of the few men who have actually got it right most of the time when it comes to wool forecasting. Congratulations Malcolm, when it comes to forecasting on commodities, you are miles ahead of the rest.
Posted by chick olsson, 3/11/2008 8:03:23 AM
Well Mr Bartholomeus - if you want to grow wool for 900c go ahead. I'm out of here.
Posted by Gus, 3/11/2008 8:46:46 AM
No wait it's OK, I received a fax from WoolProducers dated 14 October 2008 which said; "With our secure and expanding position in the global textile marketplace...."
Posted by Martin Oppenheimer, 3/11/2008 2:47:53 PM
Re: Martin. Best you can do is dredge up a comment from a 3 week old fax? Typical AWGA...against everything, for nothing. Tell me again, your candidates' policies are...umm..yep, what policies?
Posted by Sir George, 3/11/2008 11:24:00 PM

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Commodity analyst Malcolm Bartholomeus.
Commodity analyst Malcolm Bartholomeus.
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