VICTORIA'S controversial north-south pipeline is expected to deliver dramatically less water to Melbourne in its first years than previously predicted by state authorities.
On the same day households were warned of massive water price rises to pay for the pipe project and other anti-drought measures, a consultant's report has cast fresh doubts on the $600 million-plus pipeline's ability to alleviate shortages.
The report cited lower-than-expected flows down the pipeline as a major reason behind a predicted 159 billion-litre fall in available drinking water supplies over the next four years. The shortfall is equivalent to about six months' typical consumption in Melbourne.
The revelations came from data used to set new household water prices, which were yesterday predicted to soar by between 70 and 84 per cent over the five years to June 2013.
The report, released by Victoria's Essential Services Commission, has partially lifted the veil on predictions for flows down the pipeline, also known as the Sugarloaf pipeline, that the Brumby Government and water authorities have been withholding.
"The latest Melbourne Water forecast assumes that 159 (billion litres) less water will be treated over the water plan period than that assumed," the report said.
"The changed volumes reflect changes to the operation of the system as well as reduced flows from Sugarloaf pipeline."
The report confirmed that Melbourne Water was expecting the pipeline to carry its maximum 75 billion-litre flow before the completion of irrigation upgrades in the "foodbowl" region. "It now appears these transfer volumes are likely to be overstated," it said. "Melbourne Water has recently been in discussions with DSE in relation to future demand volumes. This has resulted in a reduction to the forecast transfer volumes for the Sugarloaf pipe."
Those revelations come just days after Water Minister Tim Holding claimed that pipe flows were never promised to be 75 billion litres before completion of the foodbowl project.
Despite the report, compiled by consultants Deloitte, the Government is still refusing to reveal its exact pipe flow projections for 2011 and 2012. Mr Holding did not reply to inquiries by The Age yesterday.
The Government has said in the past it believes it is unfair to judge the pipeline on its flows until irrigation upgrades, which will source water for the pipe, are completed in 2012.
As revealed by The Age last month, the expected shortfalls have forced an extension to Melbourne's water restriction regime, with households to face limits for at least a year longer than previously thought.
Under the draft water prices released yesterday, households in Melbourne will face hundreds of dollars in extra charges. Residents in the north-eastern suburbs, served by Yarra Valley Water, face the biggest rises of 84pc, pushing average bills up to $936 a year by 2013. Other households face average rises of 76pc (South East Water) and 70pc (City West Water).
The draft price rises are significantly less than those sought by water retailers. In a further surprise for the retailers, the Essential Services Commission and its chairman, Ron Ben-David, told them to make bills less reliant on fixed charges and more responsive to changes in people's consumption habits to encourage water saving.
Opposition water spokeswoman Louise Asher said the draft prices were substantially unfair, particularly to low-income people.
Melbourne Water spokesman Andrew McGinnes said last night that north-south pipeline flows would "ramp up" over time. "Melbourne Water used the maximum volume of water savings that could come down the pipeline in its initial assumptions … but the intention was always to provide updated information as it became available," he said.
Email a friend