ONE of the unheralded positives of the season for grain growers is that urea quotes are less than half the price they were at their peak in August last year.
The international urea market hit close to a 24-month low about a month ago, at about $US220-$230/t, meaning any urea bought at this low quote will soon be on Australian shores, where there will be a port price of around $500/t.
Australian Fertiliser Services Association (AFSA) president Rod Abbott said this would mean many farmers could expect on-farm prices of around $550-$600/t, depending on freight and charges.
It compares to a port price at the peak of the nitrogen spike in late August last year of $1063/t, which went on to retail at up-country prices that reached close to 1300/t in some places.
International prices have rallied slightly by 6-7pc over the past month, but are still only $US250-$260/t out of the Middle East.
"At these levels, a move of a few percent does not really have a big influence on the price," Mr Abbott said.
He said the lower pricing levels for urea were flushing out interest - although, as usual, the primary farmer concerns were seasonal.
"The lower prices make urea applications more attractive, but the market place is more closely geared to seasonal issues.
"Where I am in Gippsland, my main market is the dairy industry, which is obviously struggling with the low milk prices - they are happy to see urea prices back, but they are worried about their milk returns."
On the other hand, Mr Abbott said many cereal growers had a season with reasonable potential and would benefit from lower urea prices.
"They didn't have to pay the absolute peak prices, your $1200 or $1300, because their usage period is August/early September, and they had their orders in before the prices really skyrocketed.
"This year many will get prices at close to the bottom of the market."
Incitec Pivot said the price of urea had fallen following a drop in global urea prices.
"As the global price of urea has dropped and as stock has turned over, our average cost of urea has decreased," said Gary Brinkworth, Incitec Pivot's general manager for Australian fertilisers.
"This has enabled us to pass on a reduction to our distributors.
"Fertiliser price reductions, like increases, reflect changes in global supply and demand factors."
Mr Abbott said there had been a month's worth of slow increases on the international fertiliser market.
International reports suggest the low prices have flushed out demand among price-conscious markets such as Egypt and Brazil, and buyers were now comfortable with bulk urea orders.
The next major influence on urea prices will be India, with the market watching to see how much Chinese urea the Indians purchase this year.