VICTORIA faces a fire season of unprecedented danger, with the state’s fire officials expecting conditions to be worse than last summer when more than 170 lives were lost to bushfires.
Less than six months after the Black Saturday disaster, a leaked Department of Sustainability and Environment report warns the next fire season could start as early as November and that fires will burn with greater intensity this summer.
The report, written by department fire management officer Paul Brockhoff, says the bush has dried out to such an extent that official methods for predicting fire behaviour will be less accurate, and will tend to underestimate the threat.
Singling out Melbourne and its hinterlands as being among the state’s driest areas, Mr Brockhoff used impassioned language to illustrate the extreme danger posed by the coming summer.
‘‘The prospect we are looking at is not just another above-average fire season with above-normal losses or risks to life and property,’’ he said.
‘‘The genuine prospect of a season with the greatest potential loss to life and property is now in sight, and as climate indicators strengthen, this looks to be an increasing likelihood.’’
The report, written on July 10, has not been officially released by the department, but it is believed to have been discussed at a meeting of top fire officials yesterday.
Central to the warnings are Victoria’s continuing drought and a forecast El Nino weather pattern, which is expected to bring even drier conditions to south-eastern Australia.
The first half of the year was the driest on record for Melbourne and nearby areas, which include the Central Highlands that were badly burned in February’s fires.
‘‘This area is also the area where the highest exposure to life and property exist, and it also includes the remaining water catchment areas that did not burn last year,’’ Mr Brockhoff’s report said.
‘‘The absence of natural barriers to fire (such as moist gullies, waterways, soaks) will increase the chances of fires becoming large.
‘‘That the terrain has not saturated over winter will mean our current models will under-predict fire behaviour.’’
Even if rainfall were above average in coming months, the report says Victorians would still go into summer with the ‘‘worst-case climate outlook’’ for fire ignition, spread and difficulty of suppression.
The department’s chief fire officer, Ewan Waller, confirmed the report’s veracity and said fire authorities were communicating with threatened communities well in advance of the fire season.
Mr Waller said further analysis of the risk would be conducted before summer, but he conceded there was ‘‘strong potential’’ for another bad season. ‘‘As fire managers, we must prepare for a worst-case fire season,’’ he said.
‘‘The science tells us that we are facing a very serious threat this summer; we are planning accordingly and ask that the community do the same.’’
The Country Fire Authority has started a countdown campaign warning Victorians the fire season is only 90 days away.
The royal commission into February’s bushfires is scheduled to deliver its interim report to the Brumby Government by August 17.
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