Victoria's top water officials are preparing for the controversial north-south pipeline to deliver much less water than promised, under new water supply forecasts for Melbourne.
Despite earlier claims the pipeline would deliver up to 75 billion litres of water to Melbourne each year, authorities privately believe it will struggle to supply half that amount in its second year of operation, 2011.
Forecasts of drastically lower flows, are now being made, due to reduced expectations over the amount of "water savings" that can be achieved by irrigation upgrades in the foodbowl district in the state's central north.
The forecasts have come to light as the Government and water retailers finalise supply and demand forecasts to inform the setting of new household water prices for Melbourne.
Elements of that planning were revealed earlier this week, with authorities planning for Melbourne to be on harsher water restrictions for longer than previously forecast.
The extension of water restrictions was blamed on poor rainfall last spring, but it appears lower expectations from the pipeline are also a factor.
The only year the pipeline is expected to achieve its goal of delivering 75 billion litres to Melbourne is 2010, the same year the Brumby Government will seek re-election.
The pipeline is guaranteed to carry 75 billion litres that year because that water will already have been saved by other irrigation upgrades.
But from 2011 onwards the pipeline will rely solely upon savings in the foodbowl district, and it is then that officials expect flows to fall significantly.
Recent discussions between the Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) and water retailers included a pessimistic suggestion that just 10 billion litres would be piped to Melbourne in 2011.
The Age believes those suggestions were scotched for reasons of political sensitivity, yet supply planning for Melbourne still has significantly less than 75 billion litres coming through the pipe in 2011.
Another senior water official confided this week there was "no way" that the foodbowl project would save its promised 225 billion litres.
Those savings were calculated from expected losses of 900 billion litres.
But just eight weeks from the end of this year's irrigation season, losses are just 266 billion litres, and are expected to hit 370 billion.
Losses are lower than expected because lower rainfall means less water flowing through the leaking channels.
Melbourne Water and DSE both refused to deny yesterday they had forecast significantly less than 75 billion litres through the pipe in 2011.
Water Minister Tim Holding also declined to answer specific questions on water saved or to be delivered.
Instead, he said: "From 2011 savings from the Food Bowl Modernisation Project will be shared equally between farmers, rivers and Melbourne."
The exact 2011 pipe forecast is to be published next month when the Essential Services Commission releases its draft water price.
Opposition spokesman Peter Walsh said it was amazing that government departments could — with Premier John Brumby's support — describe northern Victorians as "climate change refugees" yet push ahead with projects such as the pipeline.
Meanwhile Victoria's desalination plant is expected to be approved today by federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett.
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