OPPOSITION Leader Ted Baillieu has surged into contention for November's state election, with a new poll showing the Coalition gaining dramatically on John Brumby's government.
The turnaround in the Coalition's election chances comes as voters lashed out at the government over the botched introduction of the myki ticket system.
They also criticised the government's efforts to combat alcohol-related violence, with the poll showing that law and order had emerged as a key election issue.
The Age/Nielsen poll shows Labor with 53 per cent of the vote after preferences, down five percentage points from polling last November. The Liberal-National vote improved to 47, up five points.
Should the vote be repeated at this year's poll, Labor would still comfortably win power, but would suffer a 1.5pc swing against it and could lose up to three seats.
The new poll is a shot in the arm for Mr Baillieu after years of poor results, although he still trails Mr Brumby as preferred premier, 54pc to 34pc.
The November Age poll, taken by a different company, showed the Government with a commanding 58-42 lead in the two-party preferred vote. Newspoll, also conducted last November, gave Labor a 57-43 lead.
The Age/Nielsen poll found:
- Two-thirds of voters are dissatisfied with the state government's performance on public transport. Twenty-nine per cent were very dissatisfied.
- Sixty per cent of those polled were dissatisfied with its performance on reducing ''alcohol-fuelled violence''. Law and order has also risen in prominence as an issue since the 2006 election, now ranking third behind health and education.
- Almost three-quarters of voters polled were satisfied or very satisfied with the government's performance in improving bushfire safety since Black Saturday.
The telephone poll of 1000 voters, taken from last Friday to Sunday, showed Labor's primary vote down 3 percentage points to 40pc, while the Coalition had slipped 1 point to 39pc, compared with the 2006 election.
The Greens have benefited from the drop in Labor's primary vote, with 14pc saying they will give their first vote to the Greens, up from 10 at the 2006 election.
Labor is battling to fend off the Greens in at least three marginal inner-city seats including Education Minister Bronwyn Pike's electorate of Melbourne, held by 2pc, Housing Minister Richard Wynne's seat of Richmond held by 3.7pc and Brunswick, held by the same margin.
The Premier's personal approval rose 7 points to 52pc, from the last Age/Nielsen poll in November 2008. His disapproval edged up one to 37pc. Mr Brumby's approval rating is just four points below that of former premier Steve Bracks on the eve of the 2006 election.
More of the voters polled disapproved of Mr Baillieu than approved. His disapproval jumped 10 percentage points to 45pc, while his approval increased three to 40pc, when compared with the 2008 poll.
Support for the Coalition was significantly higher in the bush with the Liberal-Nationals attracting 55pc of the two-party preferred vote outside Melbourne, compared with Labor's 45pc.
The Coalition would need to pick up 13 seats to win the November 27 election, equivalent to a uniform statewide swing of about 6.5pc.
Mr Brumby, meanwhile, will today tell Parliament that water security, child protection, bushfire reconstruction and housing initiatives are among the priorities for his government in 2010.
In his third statement of government intentions, the Premier is expected to outline an election year plan that focuses on delivering infrastructure projects, a climate change strategy and recruiting more child protection staff.
* THE federal opposition has moved ahead of the Rudd government on primary votes for the first time since the 2007 election, according to the latest Newspoll. The Coalition has gained three points to 41pc of the primary vote, with Labor steady on 40pc.
While Labor leads 52-48 in two-party terms, the result is a fillip for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, who will this morning release his climate change policy before the resumption of Federal Parliament.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd yesterday warned his team it could lose this year's election.
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