For many farmers through northern Victoria and the southern Riverina the decision to cut crops for hay or to see them through to grain production on total tallies from a small rainband now hangs on rain forecast to pass through tomorrow.

Should the rain fizzle out, many will make the decision to cut hay, while rainfall of 10mm, the upper end of the forecast spectrum for most, would be enough to convince growers grain yields would be worth harvesting.

For some, such as croppers in the south-eastern Mallee around Wycheproof and Quambatook and the western Riverina between Jerilderie and Deniliquin, the decision has already been made – crops are fit neither for grain nor for hay.

But for most croppers, there is still some sort of a return to be had.

The general consensus is that grain producers, learning from the lessons of last year, when many crops were cut prematurely, would prefer to go for grain, rather than cut too early.

"The seasons are being driven by totally different factors," said Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president Geoff Nalder.

"Last year, with the good start, crops had a lot more bulk and were more conducive to hay crops, whereas this year there isn’t that bulk about and the hay markets are a lot softer.

"There are crops being cut for hay, especially in the Serpentine and Pyramid Hill areas, but what many found last year, with test strips where some of the paddock was cut for hay and some was harvested was that the better return generally came from grain, even with low yields."

* Extract from Stock & Land, Vic, October 2 edition.