MUCH of the talk within the domestic grain trade this year has been of downgraded grain to be trucked from as far south and west as the South Australian Mallee right up to meet livestock feeder demand on Queensland’s Darling Downs.
However, managing director of Elders Toepfer Grain (ETG) Mark Thiele has said that he does not expect grain to be flowing from South Australia to Queensland any time soon.
“Look, there is downgraded grain in South Australia, and the numbers do just about stack up to take it north, but it’s a massive logistical exercise.
“We are talking about thousands of tonnes of grain being moved over a very long distance.”
Mr Thiele did not rule out the possibility of grain being shipped to southern Queensland over the course of early 2010, but said it would depend on supply and demand sheets.
He suggested a more logical home for South Australian and north-west Victorian grain would be into the many livestock industries in the Riverina.
“I think we will see feed barley happily being soaked up by the likes of Tabbita (feedlot, near Griffith).”
He said at this stage, it was likely that most of the feed grain available would be barley, with some feed and general purpose wheat on offer after rain caused quality problems over the last month.
“At this stage, we haven’t seen that wholesale downgrading of the wheat crop.
“Every time there is harvest rain we hear that there will be millions of tonnes of feed wheat, and there doesn’t end up as much downgrading as first feared.
“Although there is the chance for further weather damage, at this stage, you’d have to say we are looking at having hundreds of thousands of tonnes of feed wheat, rather than millions of tonnes.”
Much of what will happen on the feed grain market is reliant on the summer crop – which finally received a boost over the weekend, with good, if patchy rainfall through Queensland.
Sorghum producers through southern Queensland said they needed between 50 millimetres and 100mm before Christmas to consider further plantings.
Parts of the Darling Downs, such as Warwick, received significant falls up to Sunday night, while there were also good falls near Dalby.
However, it was more storm activity rather than a widespread rain band, so not everywhere got the rain.
The northern NSW summer cropping area, centring on the Liverpool Plains missed out on the rain, although there were good falls in New England.
It is expected the rain may inspire sporadic plantings, but is unlikely to drastically send acreage up, meaning it is still likely to be by far the smallest production year in three years.